I'm amazed when Christians argue their faith is more probably true than not, and then try to live as if they're 100% certain of it. So let's grant them a 51% probability that their brand of Christianity is true. Now to put this into perspective, would they walk out on an ice covered lake if there was only a 51% probability the ice would hold them up? ;-)
It is an interesting analogy that depends on the idea that one would not walk out on an ice covered lake unless they were 100% certain they would not fall through the ice. But who is really on thin ice - the Christian or the Atheist? If a person falls into the ice, they either drown or freeze to death. If a Christian is wrong (falls through the ice) there is no repercussions or bad consequences - he/she merely ceases to exist. What if the atheist has over-estimated the thickness of the ice on which he/she stands? They go hell which is equivalent to freezing to death and drowning - except it never ends.
Christians are not alone in standing on the ice. We have many witnesses that the ice on which we stand is thick enough hold our weight.
1 Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles. And let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us, 2 fixing our eyes on Jesus, the pioneer and perfecter of faith. For the joy set before him he endured the cross, scorning its shame, and sat down at the right hand of the throne of God. 3 Consider him who endured such opposition from sinners, so that you will not grow weary and lose heart. - Hebrews 12:1-3
Let us try to look at this analogy from a more Biblical perspective. We are already in the water drowning and freezing to death from the start. We were born on thin ice and have been fallen in. Jesus pulls his people out of the freezing water and puts us out solid ground! The unregenerate sinner isn't on thin ice, he/she is drowning and freezing to death and some don't even realize it. It takes a revelation from God to get free.
28 Furthermore, just as they did not think it worthwhile to retain the knowledge of God, so God gave them over to a depraved mind, so that they do what ought not to be done. 29 They have become filled with every kind of wickedness, evil, greed and depravity. They are full of envy, murder, strife, deceit and malice. They are gossips, 30 slanderers, God-haters, insolent, arrogant and boastful; they invent ways of doing evil; they disobey their parents; 31 they have no understanding, no fidelity, no love, no mercy. 32 Although they know God’s righteous decree that those who do such things deserve death, they not only continue to do these very things but also approve of those who practice them.- Romans 1:28-32
Debunking Christianity: At What Point Would YOU Walk Out On An Ice Covered Lake?